Federal Reserve officers reduce rates of interest as anticipated final month. However minutes from their December assembly counsel that the choice was an in depth name — and that there isn’t any assure policymakers will decrease charges once more anytime quickly.

The minutes of the central financial institution’s Dec. 17-18 assembly, launched on Wednesday, confirmed that almost all Fed officers nonetheless anticipated to chop charges ultimately. However in addition they confirmed that policymakers have been involved about indicators that their battle in opposition to inflation was dropping momentum, they usually have been not sure that rates of interest have been doing a lot to gradual the economic system down. That makes a price reduce on the central financial institution’s subsequent assembly, on the finish of the month, unlikely, Fed-watchers say.

“Virtually all contributors judged that upside dangers to the inflation outlook had elevated,” the minutes stated. Policymakers consider they’re “at or close to the purpose at which it could be applicable to gradual the tempo” of price cuts.

Fed officers are additionally coping with a brand new wrinkle: President-elect Donald J. Trump has promised to make sweeping adjustments to just about each facet of U.S. financial coverage when he takes workplace this month. Some forecasters have argued that his proposals — notably these round commerce and immigration — might result in quicker inflation and slower development.

Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, has stated that policymakers will wait to see what Mr. Trump truly does earlier than deciding find out how to reply. However the minutes from the December assembly present that some policymakers are already factoring Mr. Trump’s proposals into their outlook. Officers cited “potential adjustments in commerce and immigration coverage” as one issue suggesting that inflation might take longer to chill than beforehand anticipated.

Nonetheless, not all officers predict a big effect from Mr. Trump’s insurance policies.

“If, as I anticipate, tariffs should not have a big or persistent impact on inflation, they’re unlikely to have an effect on my view of applicable financial coverage,” Christopher J. Waller, a Fed governor, stated in a speech in Paris on Wednesday.

Even earlier than factoring in Mr. Trump’s insurance policies, nevertheless, the Fed was set to finish 2024 in a fragile place.

Policymakers raised charges to their highest stage in a long time in 2023, then saved them at that stage for greater than a yr in an effort to decelerate the economic system and produce inflation beneath management. It labored: Inflation cooled considerably, and by final fall, policymakers concluded that they had made sufficient progress that they might steadily start easing off the brakes. The Fed reduce rates of interest by half a proportion level in September, and by one other quarter level in November.

However progress on inflation stalled late final yr. That, mixed with continued robust client spending and financial development, led some economists to argue that the Fed ought to maintain off on reducing charges in December.

Others, nevertheless, argued that rates of interest have been nonetheless excessive sufficient to exert downward stress on financial development at a time when the labor market, although nonetheless robust, was starting to point out cracks. Chopping charges, in line with this view, was not a lot an effort to hurry up the economic system as to stop it from slowing additional.

That view gained out — officers determined to chop charges by one other quarter proportion level at their December assembly. However the minutes counsel it was not a straightforward name: “A majority of contributors famous that their judgments about this assembly’s applicable coverage motion had been finely balanced.”

The choice was not unanimous: Beth Hammack, the president of the Federal Reserve Financial institution of Cleveland, voted in opposition to the speed reduce. And a abstract of members’ financial projections urged that three nonvoting Fed officers would even have most well-liked to depart charges unchanged. The minutes confirmed these officers “urged that the danger of persistently elevated inflation had elevated in latest months.”

It might be some time earlier than the Fed lowers charges once more. The minutes confirmed that policymakers anticipated they “would doubtless gradual the tempo” of price cuts after their December assembly, and that they believed rates of interest have been now “considerably nearer” to a stage the place they have been neither serving to to hurry up the economic system nor serving to to gradual it down.

In keeping with financial projections launched after the assembly, officers anticipate to chop charges simply twice in 2025 — down from 4 instances of their earlier projections — and the minutes present that even these cuts are usually not assured. The Fed is “effectively positioned to take time to evaluate the evolving outlook for financial exercise and inflation,” the minutes observe.

Traders are getting the message. They overwhelmingly anticipate the Fed to carry charges regular at its subsequent assembly, on the finish of this month, and they’re divided on whether or not there shall be any cuts earlier than summer season. Monetary markets moved little in response to the minutes on Wednesday, suggesting that the account of the assembly was largely in line with traders’ expectations for Fed coverage.

Joe Rennison contributed reporting.